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Advance poll turnouts, 2008 vs 2011

Glen McGregor

Elections Canada today published estimates of the turnout at advance polls held over the Easter weekend. The agency said the numbers are up 34 per cent over 2008 actual numbers. In fact, if you look at the changes between the 2008 estimates and 2011, the increase is sharper — up 41 per cent, or 596,000 extra votes.

I’ve ranked them by percentage change in advance vote between the 2008 estimates (not actual vote totals) and 2011 estimates.

The top of the list, Edmonton Centre, is currently held by Conservative Laurie Hawn, a former fighter pilot and the party’s front-man on the defence of the government’s proposed purchase of F-35 stealth fighter jets.

Other notables in the top of the list: in Ottawa – Orleans, Conservative Royal Galipeau is believed to be in a close fight with a Liberal challenger, as is Liberal Mark Holland in Ajax-Pickering.

I have no idea why Leeds – Grenville, safely held by Conservative Gord Brown, ranks #2 on the list.

(Note: the riding at bottom of the list, Thornhill, saw a larger-than-normal advance turnout in 2008 because election day that  fell on a Jewish holiday. Thornhill has the largest Jewish population of any riding.)

PROVINCE RIDING ELECTORS 2008 ELECTORS 2011 CHANGE %CHANGE
Alberta Edmonton Centre 1,222 7,214 5,992 490
Ontario Leeds–Grenville 2,095 8,808 6,713 320
Ontario Ottawa–Orléans 3,408 13,645 10,237 300
British Columbia West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country 2,800 9,754 6,954 248
Ontario Oak Ridges–Markham 4,844 15,003 10,159 210
Ontario Ajax–Pickering 2,770 8,313 5,543 200
British Columbia Esquimalt–Juan de Fuca 3,507 10,097 6,590 188
Alberta Peace River 1,527 3,952 2,425 159
Ontario Halton 4,931 12,710 7,779 158
British Columbia Vancouver South 2,962 7,623 4,661 157
Saskatchewan Regina–Qu’Appelle 864 2,221 1,357 157
British Columbia British Columbia Southern Interior 1,622 4,142 2,520 155
Quebec Jeanne-Le Ber 3,296 8,410 5,114 155
Newfoundland and Labrador Labrador 398 982 584 147
Alberta Yellowhead 1,976 4,870 2,894 146
Quebec Verchères–Les Patriotes 3,669 8,985 5,316 145
Manitoba Winnipeg North 1,480 3,527 2,047 138
Ontario Vaughan 3,208 7,600 4,392 137
Ontario Hamilton East–Stoney Creek 4,723 11,166 6,443 136
Quebec Outremont 2,232 5,240 3,008 135
Ontario Bramalea–Gore–Malton 4,676 10,843 6,167 132
Nova Scotia Cumberland–Colchester–Musquodoboit Valley 3,725 8,634 4,909 132
British Columbia Prince George–Peace River 2,212 4,962 2,750 124
Manitoba Winnipeg South 3,388 7,307 3,919 116
Newfoundland and Labrador St. John’s South–Mount Pearl 1,727 3,697 1,970 114
British Columbia Nanaimo–Cowichan 4,284 9,048 4,764 111
Alberta Wetaskiwin 2,299 4,850 2,551 111
New Brunswick Saint John 2,877 5,778 2,901 101
Nova Scotia Halifax 3,575 7,048 3,473 97
Ontario Brampton West 5,053 9,775 4,722 93
British Columbia Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo 3,381 6,505 3,124 92
Ontario Davenport 2,287 4,369 2,082 91
Ontario Huron–Bruce 4,109 7,824 3,715 90
Nova Scotia Halifax West 3,930 7,447 3,517 89
Ontario Mississauga–Erindale 6,874 12,810 5,936 86
Ontario Markham–Unionville 4,072 7,351 3,279 81
Nova Scotia Sydney–Victoria 3,820 6,864 3,044 80
British Columbia Vancouver Kingsway 3,217 5,768 2,551 79
Manitoba Winnipeg South Centre 3,445 6,136 2,691 78
Nova Scotia Dartmouth–Cole Harbour 4,099 7,155 3,056 75
Ontario Simcoe–Grey 8,591 14,977 6,386 74
Ontario Brampton–Springdale 5,496 9,551 4,055 74
Alberta Calgary Northeast 3,541 6,136 2,595 73
Nova Scotia Kings–Hants 3,025 5,233 2,208 73
British Columbia Abbotsford 3,315 5,713 2,398 72
Nova Scotia Sackville–Eastern Shore 3,359 5,780 2,421 72
Alberta Calgary–Nose Hill 4,580 7,872 3,292 72
Newfoundland and Labrador Avalon 1,707 2,922 1,215 71
Ontario Mississauga–Brampton South 5,533 9,466 3,933 71
Alberta Edmonton–Sherwood Park 3,753 6,323 2,570 68
Ontario Lambton–Kent–Middlesex 5,147 8,631 3,484 68
Manitoba Saint Boniface 3,435 5,749 2,314 67
Ontario Kitchener Centre 4,067 6,769 2,702 66
Ontario Mississauga–Streetsville 4,885 8,119 3,234 66
Ontario Toronto–Danforth 4,197 6,949 2,752 66
Ontario Mississauga East–Cooksville 3,802 6,263 2,461 65
Ontario Nepean–Carleton 10,337 16,988 6,651 64
Ontario Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke 5,717 9,246 3,529 62
Newfoundland and Labrador St. John’s East 2,784 4,474 1,690 61
British Columbia Fleetwood–Port Kells 4,868 7,808 2,940 60
British Columbia Vancouver Centre 6,065 9,679 3,614 60
Ontario Kingston and the Islands 8,214 13,102 4,888 60
Nova Scotia South Shore–St. Margaret’s 2,774 4,424 1,650 59
Manitoba Selkirk–Interlake 2,822 4,493 1,671 59
Alberta Calgary Centre 4,084 6,483 2,399 59
Ontario Barrie 7,853 12,446 4,593 58
British Columbia New Westminster–Coquitlam 4,435 7,024 2,589 58
Ontario Kitchener–Waterloo 5,811 9,100 3,289 57
Ontario Dufferin–Caledon 5,124 7,996 2,872 56
Newfoundland and Labrador Humber–St. Barbe–Baie Verte 1,090 1,697 607 56
British Columbia Richmond 3,717 5,784 2,067 56
Ontario Mississauga South 5,372 8,332 2,960 55
Manitoba Elmwood–Transcona 2,626 4,068 1,442 55
Ontario Etobicoke North 2,864 4,401 1,537 54
Ontario Kitchener–Conestoga 4,449 6,802 2,353 53
Saskatchewan Saskatoon–Rosetown–Biggar 2,556 3,904 1,348 53
Ontario Beaches–East York 4,355 6,644 2,289 53
British Columbia Burnaby–New Westminster 4,038 6,153 2,115 52
British Columbia Vancouver East 3,342 5,087 1,745 52
Manitoba Churchill 1,184 1,800 616 52
Ontario Richmond Hill 4,900 7,446 2,546 52
British Columbia South Surrey–White Rock–Cloverdale 5,033 7,635 2,602 52
Ontario Durham 5,362 8,133 2,771 52
Ontario Oshawa 4,449 6,714 2,265 51
Quebec Chambly–Borduas 7,300 10,997 3,697 51
British Columbia Saanich–Gulf Islands 7,537 11,330 3,793 50
Alberta Calgary West 6,035 9,065 3,030 50
British Columbia Nanaimo–Alberni 6,446 9,644 3,198 50
British Columbia North Vancouver 5,543 8,287 2,744 50
New Brunswick Fundy Royal 4,327 6,457 2,130 49
Quebec Gatineau 6,713 10,013 3,300 49
Quebec Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie 5,390 8,022 2,632 49
Prince Edward Island Cardigan 2,478 3,685 1,207 49
Saskatchewan Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River 1,138 1,686 548 48
Alberta Calgary Southwest 4,102 6,073 1,971 48
New Brunswick New Brunswick Southwest 3,413 5,050 1,637 48
Ontario Cambridge 5,429 8,027 2,598 48
Quebec Alfred-Pellan 5,431 8,024 2,593 48
Ontario Ottawa Centre 8,180 12,054 3,874 47
Ontario Peterborough 7,457 10,979 3,522 47
Ontario York–Simcoe 5,779 8,505 2,726 47
Saskatchewan Saskatoon–Wanuskewin 3,477 5,109 1,632 47
Ontario Eglinton–Lawrence 5,166 7,577 2,411 47
Alberta Edmonton–Mill Woods–Beaumont 3,221 4,724 1,503 47
Ontario Niagara Falls 5,519 8,071 2,552 46
Ontario Scarborough–Agincourt 3,506 5,127 1,621 46
New Brunswick Miramichi 3,538 5,172 1,634 46
British Columbia Delta–Richmond East 3,641 5,314 1,673 46
Ontario Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock 6,870 10,011 3,141 46
Quebec Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska– 3,913 5,690 1,777 45
Ontario Niagara West–Glanbrook 5,952 8,651 2,699 45
New Brunswick Fredericton 5,848 8,493 2,645 45
Quebec Beauce 5,493 7,946 2,453 45
Newfoundland and Labrador Bonavista–Gander–Grand Falls–Windsor 1,500 2,168 668 45
British Columbia Kelowna–Lake Country 5,560 8,026 2,466 44
Quebec Joliette 6,639 9,570 2,931 44
Ontario Ancaster–Dundas–Flamborough–Westdale 7,473 10,746 3,273 44
Nova Scotia Central Nova 3,345 4,810 1,465 44
Nova Scotia Cape Breton–Canso 2,542 3,646 1,104 43
Ontario Don Valley East 3,489 4,999 1,510 43
Alberta Edmonton–St. Albert 4,853 6,952 2,099 43
Quebec Montcalm 5,820 8,321 2,501 43
New Brunswick Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe 6,492 9,245 2,753 42
Ontario Wellington–Halton Hills 6,025 8,578 2,553 42
Nova Scotia West Nova 3,521 5,012 1,491 42
Alberta Edmonton–Strathcona 4,185 5,955 1,770 42
British Columbia Burnaby–Douglas 3,723 5,291 1,568 42
New Brunswick Acadie–Bathurst 6,144 8,721 2,577 42
Alberta Westlock–St. Paul 2,859 4,057 1,198 42
British Columbia Cariboo–Prince George 3,529 4,986 1,457 41
Ontario Don Valley West 6,039 8,511 2,472 41
Ontario Perth–Wellington 4,690 6,603 1,913 41
Ontario Toronto Centre 5,318 7,481 2,163 41
Quebec Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques 3,773 5,307 1,534 41
Ontario Scarborough Centre 2,985 4,194 1,209 41
Quebec Haute-Gaspésie–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia 4,295 6,034 1,739 40
British Columbia Victoria 7,028 9,865 2,837 40
Quebec Saint-Laurent–Cartierville 4,004 5,617 1,613 40
British Columbia Kootenay–Columbia 5,168 7,237 2,069 40
Ontario Pickering–Scarborough East 4,654 6,494 1,840 40
Ontario Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry 7,098 9,890 2,792 39
Quebec Westmount–Ville-Marie 5,362 7,463 2,101 39
Manitoba Provencher 2,262 3,148 886 39
Alberta Medicine Hat 2,913 4,043 1,130 39
Alberta Edmonton–Spruce Grove 4,686 6,502 1,816 39
Ontario Burlington 6,516 9,037 2,521 39
Quebec Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier 6,507 9,018 2,511 39
Ontario Trinity–Spadina 5,335 7,383 2,048 38
Quebec Hull–Aylmer 6,589 9,107 2,518 38
Alberta Calgary Southeast 4,877 6,732 1,855 38
Ontario Oakville 6,200 8,553 2,353 38
Ontario Scarborough Southwest 2,989 4,117 1,128 38
Quebec Louis-Saint-Laurent 8,274 11,393 3,119 38
Ontario York South–Weston 2,046 2,817 771 38
Ontario Whitby–Oshawa 5,919 8,147 2,228 38
Newfoundland and Labrador Random–Burin–St. George’s 972 1,337 365 38
Quebec Chicoutimi–Le Fjord 4,028 5,537 1,509 37
Manitoba Kildonan–St. Paul 3,443 4,731 1,288 37
Ontario Ottawa–Vanier 6,184 8,494 2,310 37
Quebec Saint-Lambert 6,372 8,743 2,371 37
Quebec Laurier–Sainte-Marie 4,715 6,457 1,742 37
Ontario Simcoe North 6,914 9,455 2,541 37
Ontario Guelph 6,576 8,975 2,399 36
Quebec Brome–Missisquoi 7,336 10,008 2,672 36
Quebec Lotbinière–Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 6,729 9,114 2,385 35
Quebec Longueuil–Pierre-Boucher 6,844 9,261 2,417 35
Quebec Sherbrooke 6,445 8,710 2,265 35
British Columbia Langley 3,769 5,082 1,313 35
New Brunswick Tobique–Mactaquac 4,348 5,857 1,509 35
Ontario Windsor–Tecumseh 4,351 5,861 1,510 35
Alberta Calgary East 2,021 2,719 698 35
British Columbia Okanagan–Coquihalla 6,018 8,095 2,077 35
Prince Edward Island Egmont 2,847 3,828 981 34
New Brunswick Beauséjour 6,851 9,191 2,340 34
Ontario Scarborough–Guildwood 3,513 4,707 1,194 34
Prince Edward Island Malpeque 2,406 3,214 808 34
Ontario Glengarry–Prescott–Russell 7,311 9,766 2,455 34
British Columbia Skeena–Bulkley Valley 3,386 4,508 1,122 33
Alberta Calgary Centre-North 4,227 5,627 1,400 33
Ontario London–Fanshawe 3,383 4,502 1,119 33
Quebec LaSalle–Émard 4,613 6,131 1,518 33
Ontario Newmarket–Aurora 5,718 7,599 1,881 33
Ontario York West 1,815 2,410 595 33
British Columbia Port Moody–Westwood–Port Coquitlam 2,627 3,484 857 33
Quebec Lac-Saint-Louis 6,160 8,164 2,004 33
Quebec Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 6,305 8,354 2,049 32
Manitoba Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia 3,508 4,646 1,138 32
Ontario Oxford 4,499 5,955 1,456 32
Quebec Drummond 4,278 5,650 1,372 32
Ontario Etobicoke Centre 5,341 7,053 1,712 32
British Columbia Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge–Mission 4,732 6,247 1,515 32
Alberta Fort McMurray–Athabasca 2,558 3,375 817 32
Alberta Edmonton East 3,247 4,284 1,037 32
Alberta Macleod 4,578 6,037 1,459 32
Quebec La Pointe-de-l’Île 4,653 6,135 1,482 32
Quebec Shefford 5,402 7,104 1,702 32
Ontario Welland 5,901 7,730 1,829 31
Manitoba Brandon–Souris 2,075 2,713 638 31
Ontario Elgin–Middlesex–London 5,323 6,952 1,629 31
Quebec Lévis–Bellechasse 7,010 9,136 2,126 30
Ontario Windsor West 3,690 4,805 1,115 30
Quebec Montmorency–Charlevoix–Haute-Côte-Nord 6,322 8,210 1,888 30
Manitoba Dauphin–Swan River–Marquette 2,162 2,803 641 30
Ontario Lanark–Frontenac–Lennox and Addington 8,717 11,278 2,561 29
Alberta Edmonton–Leduc 5,465 7,067 1,602 29
Ontario Ottawa South 8,106 10,469 2,363 29
Ontario St. Paul’s 6,676 8,607 1,931 29
British Columbia Okanagan–Shuswap 6,414 8,265 1,851 29
Saskatchewan Wascana 3,119 4,008 889 29
Quebec Berthier–Maskinongé 7,187 9,231 2,044 28
Quebec Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 5,764 7,396 1,632 28
Quebec Roberval–Lac-Saint-Jean 4,501 5,754 1,253 28
Quebec Pontiac 6,334 8,091 1,757 28
Quebec Saint-Bruno–Saint-Hubert 7,523 9,604 2,081 28
Quebec Mégantic–L’Érable 5,224 6,668 1,444 28
Ontario Hamilton Mountain 4,980 6,342 1,362 27
Ontario London North Centre 4,964 6,308 1,344 27
Quebec Honoré-Mercier 5,438 6,879 1,441 26
Manitoba Winnipeg Centre 1,486 1,879 393 26
British Columbia Vancouver Quadra 6,621 8,371 1,750 26
Ontario Chatham-Kent–Essex 4,800 6,065 1,265 26
Ontario Haldimand–Norfolk 6,432 8,127 1,695 26
Quebec Richmond–Arthabaska 5,738 7,221 1,483 26
Quebec Beauharnois–Salaberry 7,426 9,333 1,907 26
Manitoba Portage–Lisgar 2,291 2,871 580 25
British Columbia Newton–North Delta 4,618 5,781 1,163 25
Quebec Repentigny 6,309 7,888 1,579 25
Ontario Willowdale 4,700 5,875 1,175 25
Quebec Compton–Stanstead 7,282 9,055 1,773 24
Quebec Saint-Jean 6,121 7,608 1,487 24
Ontario Scarborough–Rouge River 3,561 4,420 859 24
Quebec Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot 4,515 5,603 1,088 24
Quebec Rivière-du-Nord 6,591 8,157 1,566 24
Quebec Hochelaga 4,259 5,267 1,008 24
Quebec Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel 2,584 3,179 595 23
Quebec Vaudreuil-Soulanges 8,512 10,418 1,906 22
Ontario Sudbury 5,362 6,549 1,187 22
Saskatchewan Palliser 3,070 3,749 679 22
Ontario St. Catharines 5,173 6,312 1,139 22
Quebec Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Lachine 5,479 6,670 1,191 22
Ontario Ottawa West–Nepean 7,658 9,316 1,658 22
Quebec Ahuntsic 5,123 6,207 1,084 21
Ontario Brant 5,448 6,583 1,135 21
Quebec Québec 8,088 9,733 1,645 20
Quebec Châteauguay–Saint-Constant 6,772 8,149 1,377 20
Quebec Bas-Richelieu–Nicolet–Bécancour 5,493 6,603 1,110 20
Alberta Lethbridge 4,426 5,306 880 20
Quebec Argenteuil–Papineau–Mirabel 6,196 7,420 1,224 20
Quebec Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles 8,107 9,617 1,510 19
Quebec Terrebonne–Blainville 4,870 5,760 890 18
Ontario Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound 7,431 8,718 1,287 17
Quebec Brossard–La Prairie 8,338 9,781 1,443 17
Saskatchewan Battlefords–Lloydminster 2,144 2,508 364 17
Ontario Essex 6,399 7,479 1,080 17
Quebec Jonquière–Alma 4,322 5,031 709 16
Ontario Northumberland–Quinte West 7,667 8,913 1,246 16
Quebec Beauport–Limoilou 8,400 9,761 1,361 16
Ontario Nickel Belt 6,537 7,573 1,036 16
Quebec Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou 2,714 3,144 430 16
Saskatchewan Regina–Lumsden–Lake Centre 2,464 2,854 390 16
Saskatchewan Prince Albert 2,885 3,338 453 16
Quebec Papineau 5,076 5,869 793 16
Quebec Pierrefonds–Dollard 5,555 6,422 867 16
Quebec Laurentides–Labelle 8,592 9,901 1,309 15
Northwest Territories Western Arctic 1,118 1,288 170 15
Ontario London West 7,075 8,148 1,073 15
Quebec Saint-Maurice–Champlain 7,169 8,225 1,056 15
Quebec Abitibi–Témiscamingue 2,884 3,300 416 14
Quebec Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine 4,035 4,593 558 14
Quebec Bourassa 3,872 4,398 526 14
Quebec Louis-Hébert 11,239 12,686 1,447 13
Quebec Laval 6,195 6,991 796 13
Saskatchewan Yorkton–Melville 2,895 3,231 336 12
Quebec Manicouagan 3,371 3,761 390 12
Quebec Laval–Les Îles 6,615 7,342 727 11
Ontario Kenora 2,589 2,865 276 11
Ontario Sarnia–Lambton 5,637 6,230 593 11
Ontario Parry Sound–Muskoka 7,681 8,473 792 10
Saskatchewan Souris–Moose Mountain 1,883 2,074 191 10
New Brunswick Madawaska–Restigouche 5,846 6,397 551 9
Ontario Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing 4,461 4,820 359 8
Saskatchewan Cypress Hills–Grasslands 2,196 2,345 149 7
Ontario Etobicoke–Lakeshore 5,930 6,313 383 6
Yukon Yukon 1,492 1,560 68 5
Ontario Prince Edward–Hastings 8,380 8,729 349 4
Quebec Trois-Rivières 8,700 9,057 357 4
Ontario York Centre 5,010 5,153 143 3
Ontario Parkdale–High Park 4,191 4,288 97 2
Ontario Timmins–James Bay 5,596 5,680 84 2
Ontario Thunder Bay–Rainy River 4,798 4,846 48 1
Saskatchewan Blackstrap 4,944 4,968 24 0
Ontario Hamilton Centre 3,357 3,295 -62 -2
Ontario Thunder Bay–Superior North 4,822 4,639 -183 -4
Alberta Wild Rose 5,207 4,969 -238 -5
Prince Edward Island Charlottetown 2,671 2,481 -190 -7
Ontario Nipissing–Timiskaming 6,834 6,316 -518 -8
British Columbia Surrey North 2,256 2,073 -183 -8
Ontario Sault Ste. Marie 3,972 3,585 -387 -10
Ontario Carleton–Mississippi Mills 10,493 9,388 -1,105 -11
British Columbia Chilliwack–Fraser Canyon 4,497 3,808 -689 -15
Alberta Crowfoot 4,041 3,420 -621 -15
Quebec Mount Royal 7,466 6,253 -1,213 -16
Alberta Red Deer 3,355 2,611 -744 -22
Nunavut Nunavut 209 158 -51 -24
Alberta Vegreville–Wainwright 3,047 2,189 -858 -28
British Columbia Vancouver Island North 6,802 4,771 -2,031 -30
Saskatchewan Saskatoon–Humboldt 4,119 2,784 -1,335 -32
Ontario Thornhill 9,440 6,085 -3,355 -36

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